Box Office BS: Hellboy

Author: Murray Roach March 25th, 2004

I friggin’ love Hellboy. Love him, And I think my esteemed colleagues are underestimating the pull of Mike Mignola’s favourite son…

The Stars: While apparently many people have heard of Ron Perlman, he’s basically got a face only a mother could love, and his most famous role (Beauty and the Beast) was a long, LONG time ago. I think the only person with mild box-office recognition is Selma Blair, who’s been solid in the few films I’ve seen her in. Influence: Negligible - nobody’s going to see this film because of its cast.

The Director: I tend to agree with Steve that Guillermo del Toro could be the next Sam Raimi. However, right now he’s basically a nobody. Influence: Negligible.

The Geek Factor: Probably minimal. I mean, I remember losing my mind when Mike Mignola took over Alpha Flight (and then lasted 3 issues…) but most of the world’s surviving comic fans probably don’t remember that and probably only read crappy books by Marvel. Having said that, I’d bet the farm that everybody who’s ever read a single Hellboy story will be there. And, let’s be honest, it can’t possibly suck as much as the Hulk did. Influence: Slightly Positive.

The Buzz: Haven’t read any reviews in detail, but I have seen a lot of 3.5/5 numbers. And, while most people don’t give a rat’s ass about reviews, it can’t hurt. Word of mouth, though, could be the dark horse for this film - everybody’s already talking about it, if it delivers, it could have long legs at the box office. Influence: Potentially Extremely Positive.

The Marketing: There’s Hellboy posters in the subway in Toronto, the trailer is on TV constantly, heck, Dark Horse has even re-released every single Hellboy story in trade format. (Except, I think, that one from the solo Abe Sapien issue…I need that one…) Influence: Extremely Positive.

The Quality: From the trailers I’ve seen, it looks really, really good - which counts for a ton in a monster flick. And, I mean, it would have to be the worst movie ever effects wise to be worse than the Hulk. Influence: Positive.

My Predikshun: I think Hellboy will bring in 35 million on opening week-end and (bold prediction time!) could possibly have a Matrix (the first one…the good one…) run if all goes well. The buzz is good, it’s been marketed properly without oversaturating, and looks to be a faithful adaptation of Mignola’s pride and joy. I think word of mouth has the chance to take this film to a great box office. Final tally - 102 million. Overseas…no idea…

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Box Office BS: Hellboy

Author: Britt Schramm March 25th, 2004

Before I give my predikshuns, am I the only who wants a Summer Movie Fantasy League (and no I’m not talking about that Hollywood.com stock market crap)? I mean, wouldn’t it be cool to draft movies and base your rankings with such stats as “Year-To-Date Gross”, “Weekly Gross”, “Number of Screens”, “Avg Gross per Screen”, “Official Merchandise Sold”, “% Drop off per Week”? Then again, maybe it’s just me. Nevertheless, on to the Hellboy prognostications:

The Stars: The “Beast” from the mushy “Beauty & The Beast” TV show looks like a great Hellboy. I was hoping that his voice would be somewhat more menacing but he definitely brings the self-deprecating humor on board. Selma Blair looks great as Liz. The only issue that I have with the cast while I love Hank Kingsley, he just seems out of place in this one. Hey Now! Influence - Slightly Positive

The Director: Guillermo del Toro’s previous work, Blade II, was a decent success but can he step up to the plate and make the movie more than the special effects (ala Jackson)? I’m keeping my fingers crossed. Influence: Positive.

The Geek Factor: I dunno. Some movies like “Men in Black” did not trade on those touched with the geekiness to become a great success. But “Spider-Man” actually embraced everyone’s inner-geek. As everyone else has said, word-of-mouth is probably needed but is a true geek-out warranted? Probably not. Influence: Low.

The Buzz: All I’ve heard is how some of my work cohorts, who are not fanboys in the least, are very interested in this movie. However, I think that while bad buzz can really kill any movie (except for Titanic), positive buzz usually only pushes a good movie to a great one. Influence: Positive.

The Marketing: Outside of the new dumps (book displays) at the stores, I think that best sign of this movie’s marketing prowess is that Best Buy is giving out a free 15-minute Hellboy “Behind the Scenes” DVD. If you can target one of the biggest audiences right now, Best Buy is the place. Not to mention all of the TV ads. Influence: Extremely Positive.

The Quality: Hopefully, higher than “Tank Girl”. In all seriousness, the first trailer that I saw had me worried as it seemed that some of the effects seemed not to be too realistic. But as the release date got closer, it seemed that things were tightening up as far as production. I always remember how bad the early Spider-Man trailer was (you know, the one with the helicopter trapped in the web between the Twin Towers). Influence: Positive

My Predikshun: I’m going out on a limb for this one: Opening weekend - $35 million with a steady stream until “Van Helsing” comes along. Final US tab - $80 million with another $45 million from overseas.

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3 Responses to “Box Office BS: Hellboy”

  1. Robbo Says:
    March 25th, 2004 at 2:56 pm

    You know there is a http://www.fantasyfilmleague.com

    The seaons run for a year though. New one starts in April. Create your fantasy film now.

    The underlying game is nice, but the FFl website has lots of room for improvement.

  2. A.Duncan Says:
    March 25th, 2004 at 5:24 pm

    Britt — A fantasy movie league sounds crazy fun, and I’m glad to see someone else putting the hurt on “Tank Girl.” My eyes still hurt from watching that crap factory.

  3. Britt Says:
    March 25th, 2004 at 6:02 pm

    Rob - Cool. I’ll look into it. But I’m really into having a league where you would draft certain “event” movies and determine your standings based on pre-determined categories from their real Box Office performance. Kinda like drafting entire teams instead of players.

    Andrew - Tank Girl (or possibly Dolph Lundgren’s The Punisher) was probably the movie that brought down the whole Comic Book movie trend in the early to mid 90’s. I will always take pot shots at that piece of crap.

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Box Office BS: Hellboy

Author: AF Duncan March 25th, 2004

Disclaimer: I’m pretty much talking out of my ass here, but we’ll see how it goes.

The Stars: Ron Perlman leads a quality cast of hey-that-person-looks-familiar character actors including John Hurt (”Alien,” “The Elephant Man,” and 1,000 other movies), Niles Crane’s voice, and the pretty, bitchy girl from “Legally Blonde.” Influence: I tend to agree with Steve here, but star power — or the lack thereof — should not be underestimated.

The Director: Guillermo del Toro has yet to make a great movie, but he hasn’t made a clunker, either. An exciting and original stylist who has better instincts and more personality than his peers. Could be this generation’s John Carpenter. Influence: huge.

The Geek Factor: I personally think Geek Factor is overrated in the grand scheme of things — what studio is going to care about the opinions of 5,000 obsessive social retards? Then again, I honestly don’t know all that much about it. I’m also willing to bet 85-90% of the general public does not know that “Hellboy” is a comic. Still, good word of mouth can’t hurt. Influence: negligible.

The Buzz: The solid trailer and bizarre subject matter seems to have captured the interest of many. Influence: I think people are generally waiting to see what the reviews and word of mouth are, but getting them intrigued is half the battle.

The Marketing: I can’t turn around without seeing an ad for “Hellboy” on TV, which tells me the studio is surprisingly behind something that looks very weird and very risky as far as today’s safe, film-going climate goes. I completely agree with Steve that more people know about this than the likely excrecable “Scooby-Doo 2,” thank god. Influence: very positive.

The Quality: The first trailer wasn’t so hot, but the present one makes it look like a lot of fun. I am looking forward to this, as are most of the other nerds I know. As I mentioned earlier, non-nerds are generally trepidatious, but intrigued.

My Predikshun: Ok — as Steve will testify, I absolutely suck at predicting grosses, but here goes: opening weekend around $30 mil. Good word of mouth — if it happens — will keep the weekly drop-off low, so maybe a final gross somewhere around $85 mill…? Internationally, no idea — uh, $90 million.

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2 Responses to “Box Office BS: Hellboy”

  1. Robbo Says:
    March 25th, 2004 at 11:45 am

    I think that disclaimer applies to all three

  2. Stephen Gerding Says:
    March 25th, 2004 at 11:48 am

    No way, man - you’re the Resident Expert.

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Box Office BS: Hellboy!

Author: Stephen Gerding March 25th, 2004

Mr. Rob “Comics2Film” Worley has agreed to spearhead this summer’s comic book movie dealio here at 4CR. He’ll pick the flick, analyze it and make his predictions about it’s box office haul. Then, we’ll come in after him and agree or disagree. After the movie drops, you’re humble webmaster’ll pick up the pieces and see who was closest to reality. Fun, huh?

The Stars: Solid enough cast, with Perlman in the role he was born to play. Less important than a big name tho, is how the characters look. And frankly, they kick ass. It’s all about the monsters, baby. Influence: irrelevent.

The Director: Guillermo del Toro - a few years ago, he’d probably have been listed as an equal to Peter Jackson and Sam Raimi. Njowadays, he’s just one mega-blockbuster behind them. Hellboy may not be quite that big, but it looks like it’ll be another step towards that huge payoff franchise he deserves. Influence: positive.

The Geek Factor: Pretty much only for the hardcore, unfortunately. On the other hand, the fans are pretty strong, if not quite rabid. I’m sure their influence will be felt amongst their non-comic book reading peers. Influence: slightly positive.

The Buzz: Having been avopiding reviews, I’m not sure about the buzz beyond my circle of friends and family. That being said, I don’t know anyone that’s not at least intrigued by the trailers, with quite a few folks planning to catch it within a few weeks of it opening. Which is more than I could say for, let’s see…..Hidalgo. Influence: very positive.

The Marketing: Hellboy is everywhere. For a character that nobody outside of comics knew about 9 months ago, the name is certainly on virtually the entire movie-going community now. Even more telling is the fact that the marketing has totally placed a claim on the weekend, despite the new Rock movie opening at the same time. Hell, more people seem aware of Hellboy than they are of the Scooby-Doo sequel opening a week earlier. Excellent work. Influence: very positive.

The Quality: So far, each trailer has been a significant improvement over the one previous, with the final burst of advertising looking phenomenal. Blade 2 was great fun and looked fantastic, and I expect del Toro has learned a few new tricks here.

My Predikshun: I’m figuring on a strong but not overwhelming opening. Dawn of the Dead did $27 million, and Hellboy will do about 22.5. Looking at $65-70 million overall domestically, leading to a greenlit sequel by the end of the summer. Internationally, I dunno - figure 75 million, just to overshoot Worley.

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3 Responses to “Box Office BS: Hellboy!”

  1. BJ Sim Says:
    March 25th, 2004 at 10:47 am

    Hmmn … still low with the Dom Gross. Remeber Daredevil did 102mil and the Hulk did 132mil domestic. I gotta say, you guys really don’t think it’ll do THAT well.

  2. Stephen Gerding Says:
    March 25th, 2004 at 11:55 am

    Well, I’m factoring in the fact that most people aren’t seeing it as a comic book movie. I think a lot of folks will think it’s some sort of weird horror-action hybrid, not a superhero flick. And, traditionally, horror doesn’t break that 100 mil ceiling…

  3. BJ Sim Says:
    March 25th, 2004 at 1:33 pm

    point taken

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Box Office BS: Hellboy!

Author: Rob Worley March 25th, 2004

The 2004 comic book movie season starts off with a stone-fisted wallop next week. “Hellboy” will be bashing monsters and twisting tentacles on April 2, 2004. I’m geeked as geek can be about this movie, which I’ve been anticipating for some six years now.

“But what about the box office,” asks 4CR meister Steve Gerding.

Let’s look at the factors that can influence the till.

The Stars: We’ve got a solid cast here but no bankable names. Sure, Ron Perlman has a fan following, but does my mom know who he is? Influence: slightly positive.

The Director: Guillermo del Toro a fan-favorite and deservedly well respected in genre circles. But is he on the radar of the average moviegoer? His most well-known, mainstream effort is “Blade II”. Influence: slightly positive.

The Geek Factor: Hellboy’s got a following, for sure, but it’s nothing like even a second-shelf Marvel character like Daredevil enjoys. Influence: slightly positive.

The Buzz: After the preview screenings started last week, reviews have been popping up all over the net and they are GLOWING. Not just the usual fanboy pandering sites either, but reviews from outside of the fan-zone. Influence: positive.

The Marketing: Sony’s been pushing the trailers and TV spots full tilt and they look AWESOME. I’ve seen some of my non-comics fans take an interest on the strength of the trailers. We’ve got music videos, contests and more, all raising awareness. If there’s one thing Sony knows how to do it’s sell their movies. Influence: very positive.

The Quality: I can’t judge here. I won’t see Hellboy until Monday. I’ve read the script and seen the trailers. Based on that, and the nice reviews so far, I’m betting Hellboy is a fun monster/super-hero movie with a lot of heart. Influence: very positive.

My Predikshun: Hellboy will enjoy a strong opening, but won’t set any records: $26.2 million. However, the quality of the movie will generate good word of mouth giving our child of the netherworld strong legs and staying power. It’ll probably take in a total $75.98 million domestically and another $60.6 million overseas.

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3 Responses to “Box Office BS: Hellboy!”

  1. BJ Sim Says:
    March 25th, 2004 at 10:36 am

    Good pre-review.

    I think the Gross numbers seem a bit low. Anything under 100mil domestic is considered a flop anymore.

    As for star power, both my wife and mother-in-law know who Ron Perlman is. They loved Beauty and the Beast (TV), and my wife is quite interested in seeing this film. She became interested once he was attached to the project. But now she’s hooked because of the trailers.

  2. Tracey Says:
    July 16th, 2004 at 12:28 am

    Anyone know where I can find more information?

  3. glory hole Says:
    July 22nd, 2004 at 9:54 pm

    First time reading this blog, just wanted to say hi.

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