As the reigning 4CR champeen with this here prediction deal, I’m feeling the pressure. Come on - watch me choke!

The Stars: Not a single decent draw here. Travolta will never drop back into his pre-Look Who’s Talking level of box office despair, but he’s gonna need another hot flick to make him a true draw again. This ain’t it. Thomas Jane is a solid actor, and this will probably neither hurt nor hinder his career, but he doesn’t put asses in seats. Romijn-Stamos is a total non-factor, since she’s hardly in the promos and is all but unrecognizable. Influence: None At All.

The Director: Totally irrelevant, really. Nobody knows this guy from Adam. Influence: None.

The Geek Factor: Marvel Zombies will line up for this, as will some lapsed comics fans. The only thing they needed to do in order to make this crowd show up was put the Punisher in the skull shirt, and they’ve delivered that in spades. The smartest and simplest thing they did, and it will help them out for a week, at least. Influence: Positive.

The Buzz: While the trailers and commercials have been somewhat dodgy, I think there’s a general feeling of hopeful positivety around the flick. It looks kinda cheesy, but there’s still a chance that the body count will overcome the nu-rock ballad music Influence: Slightly Positive.

The Marketing: Everyone knows that The Punisher is coming, and the ads didn’t start so long ago that anyone is really that sick of hearing about it. The commercials and trailers are kinda crap, but the print ads and posters are pretty well done. Influence: Slightly Positive.

The Quality: I said earlier that fans are more or less cautiosly optimistic and will show up opening weekend. The flip side of that is that the average moviegoer doesn’t care enough about the character to hedge their reactions to the lackluster previews. Once you get beyond the faithful fanbase, I don’t see many people being impressed enough with what we’ve seen to drop the $$ for some explosions and maimings. Influence: Negative.

The Competition: Kill Bill didn’t exactly rule the box office when it came out, but I think KB2 will do better. And, for the civilian film going audience, it’s a proven commodity and will win out 9 out of 10 debates over which flick to pick. Kill Bill 2 will rule the weekend, leaving Punisher a distant second or possibly even third. Influence: Very Negative.

My Predikshun: I’m picking Kill Bill 2 to win the weekend with 21-24 million, leaving The Punisher floundering with somewhere around 14 million on it’s way to a 35 million total in the US and $45 total everywhere else.

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